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ELECTION 2015

LABOUR HOLDS NEWPORT SEATS BUT DOES NOT ADVANCE

May 8 - Labour has held both its seats in Newport but has failed to make the advances necessary to reflect a wider General Election victory. The votes in Newport mirror the national picture where the Conservatives have confounded the polls and pulled off a shock victory. In Newport East Jessica Morden made it three election victories in a row and increased her majority as the Liberal Democrat vote declined by nearly 9,000. Morden's vote went up by 3.7 per cent but Conservative Natasha Ashgar increased her party's vote by 4.3 per cent resulting in a small swing to the Conservatives. UKIP were the main beneficiaries of the protest vote in the constituency adding 16 per cent to their vote. Veteran Paul Flynn comfortably won Newport West but the Conservative vote held up very well with another tiny swing in favour of the Tories. UKIP advanced to 15 per cent and both the Greens and Plaid Cymru increased their votes. No significant change in either seat but the strength of the Tory performance and the rise of UKIP reflects the trends experienced across the UK. Turnout in both constituencies was below the national average for the General Election (66 per cent).

The uncertainty of the outcome of the national result had lent excitement to the General Election campaign. However, in Newport there was little significant activity as the parties made the effort to solicit public support. Posters of support for candidates and parties were few and far between. Labour is expected to retain both seats comfortably and the Liberal Democrats were expected to lose support particularly in Newport East where they came within five per cent of incumbent MP Jessica Morden in 2010. A small number of hustings meetings had taken place across Newport involving the candidates.

Based on the final Poll of Polls Newport East would have seen Labour's majority increase to 22.3 per cent with a 4.2 per cent swing from the second placed Tories to Labour with UKIP picking up 13 per cent. In Newport West the swing would have been 3.7 per cent from Conservative to Labour with the Lib Dems falling back to fifth place. The actual results were as follows -

NEWPORT EAST Candidate Votes % %
Labour Jessica Morden 14,290 40.7 +3.7
Conservative Natasha Ashgar 9,585 27.3 +4.3
UKIP David Stock 6,466 18.4 +16.4
Lib Dem Paul Halliday 2,251 6.4 -25.8
Plaid Cymru Tony Salkeld 1,231 3.5 +1.4
Green David McLean 887 2.5  
Socialist Labour Shangara Singh Bhatoe 398 1.1 +0.7
  Majority 4,705 13.4                      +8.6
  Total votes cast 35,108 62.8                      -0.2
Labour hold   Swing 0.3 Lab to Con
NEWPORT WEST        
  Candidate Votes % %
Labour Paul Flynn 16,663 41.2 −0.1
Conservative Nick Webb 13,123 32.5 +0.2
UKIP Gordon Norrie 6,134 15.2 +12.3
Plaid Cymru Simon Coopey 1,604 4.0 +1.2
Lib Dem Ed Townsend 1,581 3.9 -12.7
Green Pippa Bartolotti 1,272 3.2 +2.1
  Majority 3,510 8.7  
  Total votes cast 40,347 64.9 0.1
Labour hold   Swing 0.1 Lab to Con

 

2010 Results

NEWPORT EAST Candidate Votes % %
Labour Jessica Morden 12,744 37 −8.2
Liberal Democrat Ed Townsend 11,094 32.2 8.5
Conservative Dawn Parry 7,918 23 −0.5
BNP Keith Jones 1,168 3.4 N/A
Plaid Cymru Fiona Cross 724 2.1 −1.7
UKIP David Rowlands 677 2 −1.0
Socialist Labour Miss Elizabeth Anne Screen 123 0.4 −0.4
    1,650 4.8  
Labour hold   Swing −8.3 Lab to LD

 

NEWPORT WEST        
  Candidate Votes % %
Labour Paul Flynn 16,389 41.3 −3.6
Conservative Matthew Williams 12,845 32.3 2.8
Liberal Democrat Veronica German 6,587 16.6 −1.3
BNP Timothy Windsor 1,183 3 N/A
UKIP Hugh Moelwyn Hughes 1,144 2.9 0.5
Plaid Cymru Jeff Rees 1,122 2.8 −0.8
Green Pippa Bartolotti 450 1.1 −0.4
    3,544 8.9  
    39,720 64.8 5.5
Labour hold   Swing −3.2 Lab to Con